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Friday, February 26, 2010

Governor 2010

Illinois
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 2/22-24 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/25). Tested: Gov. Pat Quinn (D), '06 candidate/state Sen. Bill Brady (R) and state Sen. Kirk Dillard (R).

General Election Matchups

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
P. Quinn 46% 75% 7% 40% 43% 49%
K. Dillard 35 7 77 35 39 31
Other 1 1 1 1 1 1
Undec 18 17 15 24 17 19

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
P. Quinn 37%/41% 18%/56% 69%/17% 34%/43% 40%/39% 34%/43%
K. Dillard 31 /37 10 /53 66 /10 29 /39 34 /33 28 /41
B. Brady 29 /41 7 /60 64 / 9 28 /43 33 /38 25 /44

Massachusetts
A WHDH-TV/Suffolk Univ. poll; conducted 2/21-24; surveyed 500 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.4%. Subsamples of 273 Dem primary voters and 155 GOP primary voters; margins of error +/- 5.9% and 7.9%, respectively (release, 2/26). Tested: Gov. Deval Patrick (D), '06 Green-Rainbow Party nominee Grace Ross (D), Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO/ex-MA HHS/Finance sec. Charlie Baker (R), '06 indie candidate/ex-MA Turnpike Authority board member Christy Mihos (R), Treas. Tim Cahill (I) and '02 candidate Jill Stein (G).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-           All Men Wom
D. Patrick 59% 56% 62%
G. Ross 15 22 10
Undec 26 22 28

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-           All Men Wom 11/8 9/15
C. Baker 47% 43% 53% 30% 43%
C. Mihos 17 24 7 33 19
Undec 36 33 40 37 38

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/8 9/15
D. Patrick 33% 58% 10% 21% 28% 37% 38% 36%
C. Baker 25 10 55 30 31 20 15 14
T. Cahill 23 21 25 24 20 25 26 23
J. Stein 3 1 0 4 3 2 n/a n/a
Undec 16 11 10 21 17 15 22 26

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/8 9/15
D. Patrick 34% 59% 13% 22% 29% 40% 36% 36%
T. Cahill 26 21 25 30 25 27 26 24
C. Mihos 19 10 47 19 26 12 20 17
J. Stein 3 2 0 5 3 3 n/a n/a
Undec 18 9 15 25 17 18 18 23

Patrick As Gov.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/8
Approve 35% 55% 20% 25% 31% 39% 42%
Disapprove 54 36 75 63 60 48 51

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     11/8    9/15
D. Patrick 38%/50% 60%/29% 20%/68% 25%/62% 43%/47% 42%/45%
T. Cahill 31 /16 29 /15 32 /22 32 /16 41 /13 35 /12
C. Mihos 20 /28 14 /37 25 /30 25 /21 30 /25 27 /23
C. Baker 18 /12 9 /18 33 / 5 21 / 8 13 / 7 15/ 11

Does Patrick Deserve To Be Re-Elected, Or Is It Time To Elect Someone Else?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/8 9/15 3/20
Re-elect him 29% 49% 13% 17% 26% 31% 32% 29% 34%
Someone else 60 41 80 70 65 56 55 56 47
Undec 11 11 7 12 9 13 13 15 20

Do You Think Patrick Is A Weak Leader, Or Is He A Victim Of The Bad Economy?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Weak leader 68% 55% 78% 70% 70% 65%
Bad economy 22 36 11 19 21 22

Do You Think MA Would Be Better Off With A GOP Gov.?
-       All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 9/15
Yes 30% 12% 62% 36% 37% 24% 35%
No 48 76 15 35 42 54 54

Do You View Cahill As An Indie, Or Do You View Him As Still A Dem Who Left His Party To Run For GOV?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Dem 47% 46% 53% 46% 48% 45%
Indie 26 24 28 26 25 26

Nevada
A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll; conducted 2/22-24 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research; surveyed 625 regular voters; margin of error +/- 3.9%. Oversample of 300 GOP primary regular voters; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 2/26). Tested: Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), ex-North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (R), Clark Co. Commis. Rory Reid (D) and ex-U.S. District Judge/ex-NV AG/ex-NV Gaming Commis. chair Brian Sandoval (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             Now 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
B. Sandoval 37% 39% 39% 41% 33%
J. Gibbons 30 23 18 20 17
M. Montandon 9 7 6 4 3
Others n/a n/a -- -- 1
Undec 24 31 37 35 46

General Election Matchups
-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
R. Reid 42% 70% 9% 42% 36% 48% 43% 48% 49% 47%
J. Gibbons 38 12 71 35 48 28 36 34 37 35
Undec 20 18 20 22 16 24 21 18 14 18

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
B. Sandoval 51% 23% 84% 49% 56% 46% 53% 49% 50% 49%
R. Reid 29 55 5 29 23 35 31 34 33 32
Undec 20 22 11 22 21 19 16 17 17 19

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     1/7     12/2    10/8    6/19    5/14
B. Sandoval 33%/ 7% 36%/ 5% 39%/ 6% 38%/ 7% n/a n/a
R. Reid 22 /36 25 /35 23 /28 21 /29 n/a n/a
J. Gibbons 17 /51 18 /53 19 /50 15 /54 10%/57% 17%/52%

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