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Friday, September 4, 2009

Senate-Kentucky (2010)

Senate (2010)
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 8/31-9/2 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Oversamples of 400 Dem primary LVs and 400 GOP primary LVs; margin of error for each +/- 4.9% (release, 9/4). Party ID Breakdown: 48%D, 38%R, 14%I. Tested: Sec/State Trey Grayson (R), Ron Paul son/eye surgeon Rand Paul (R), '04 nominee/LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) and AG Jack Conway (D).
Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
- All Men Wom
D. Mongiardo 37% 35% 39%
J. Conway 30 34 27
Other 15 18 13
Undec 18 13 21

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
- All Men Wom
T. Grayson 40% 42% 37%
R. Paul 25 27 23
Other 18 20 16
Undec 17 11 24

General Election Matchups
- All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 2/4
T. Grayson 45% 50% 40% 14% 85% 45% 51% 5% 43%
D. Mongiardo 41 38 44 71 5 36 36 74 42
Undec 14 12 16 15 10 19 13 21 15

-               All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk 2/4
T. Grayson 46% 51% 41% 14% 86% 47% 52% 5% 42%
J. Conway 40 38 42 70 4 35 35 74 41
Undec 14 11 17 16 10 18 13 21 17

-               All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
D. Mongiardo 42% 39% 45% 73% 5% 37% 37% 75%
R. Paul 37 43 31 7 75 37 42 3
Undec 21 18 24 20 20 26 21 22

-               All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
J. Conway 41% 38% 44% 72% 5% 35% 36% 74%
R. Paul 37 42 32 7 75 37 42 3
Undec 22 20 24 21 20 28 22 23

Fav/Unfav
- All Dem GOP Ind 2/4
D. Mongiardo 47%/39% 66%/26% 25%/58% 43%/35% 50%/40%
J. Conway 45 /37 65 /22 22 /58 41 /33 48 /27
M. McConnell 44 /51 22 /77 74 /19 39 /49 na
T. Grayson 43 /21 30 /31 59 /11 46 /15 39 /18
R. Paul 39 /16 25 /26 56 / 7 42 / 8 na

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