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Friday, February 26, 2010

House 2010

DE-AL
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 2/22-24 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/25). Tested: '08 GOV candidate/ex-LG John Carney (D), '08 LG nominee/ex-state Sen. Charlie Copeland (R), sales rep. Fred Cullis (R) and '06 AG nominee/ex-Asst. U.S. Atty Ferris Wharton (R).

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 10/14
J. Carney 46% 72% 10% 45% 42% 50% 44%
C. Copeland 29 8 59 28 33 25 21
Undec 25 20 31 27 25 25 35

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
J. Carney 50% 77% 11% 52% 47% 53%
F. Cullis 26 7 53 25 30 22
Undec 24 16 36 23 23 25

-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
J. Carney 45% 75% 7% 40% 41% 49%
F. Wharton 35 9 72 34 38 32
Undec 20 16 21 26 21 19

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     10/14
M. Castle 65%/32% 43%/53% 87%/10% 79%/19% 64%/30%
B. Obama 59 /36 86 /10 19 /74 63 /32 n/a
F. Wharton 48 /38 30 /59 73 /18 49 /26 n/a
J. Carney 47 /22 69 / 6 16 /49 48 /14 41 /19
C. Copeland 21 /23 12 /30 34 /13 20 /24 11 / 8
F. Cullis 10 /18 5 /23 17 /11 8 /19 n/a

KS-04
A KWCH-TV poll; conducted 2/22-24 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 423 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.8% (release, 2/25). Tested: Retired pilot Jim Anderson, state Rep. Steve Brunk, businessman Wink Hartman, state Sen. Dick Kelsey, RNC Cmteman/businessman Mike Pompeo and state Sen. Jean Schodorf.

General Election Matchup
-            All Men Wom
W. Hartman 36% 37% 34%
D. Kelsey 11 10 12
M. Pompeo 10 11 8
J. Schodorf 10 9 12
J. Anderson 6 6 7
S. Brunk 5 7 3
Other 7 6 9
Undec 15 14 16

Governor 2010

Illinois
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 2/22-24 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/25). Tested: Gov. Pat Quinn (D), '06 candidate/state Sen. Bill Brady (R) and state Sen. Kirk Dillard (R).

General Election Matchups

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
P. Quinn 46% 75% 7% 40% 43% 49%
K. Dillard 35 7 77 35 39 31
Other 1 1 1 1 1 1
Undec 18 17 15 24 17 19

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
P. Quinn 37%/41% 18%/56% 69%/17% 34%/43% 40%/39% 34%/43%
K. Dillard 31 /37 10 /53 66 /10 29 /39 34 /33 28 /41
B. Brady 29 /41 7 /60 64 / 9 28 /43 33 /38 25 /44

Massachusetts
A WHDH-TV/Suffolk Univ. poll; conducted 2/21-24; surveyed 500 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.4%. Subsamples of 273 Dem primary voters and 155 GOP primary voters; margins of error +/- 5.9% and 7.9%, respectively (release, 2/26). Tested: Gov. Deval Patrick (D), '06 Green-Rainbow Party nominee Grace Ross (D), Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO/ex-MA HHS/Finance sec. Charlie Baker (R), '06 indie candidate/ex-MA Turnpike Authority board member Christy Mihos (R), Treas. Tim Cahill (I) and '02 candidate Jill Stein (G).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-           All Men Wom
D. Patrick 59% 56% 62%
G. Ross 15 22 10
Undec 26 22 28

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-           All Men Wom 11/8 9/15
C. Baker 47% 43% 53% 30% 43%
C. Mihos 17 24 7 33 19
Undec 36 33 40 37 38

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/8 9/15
D. Patrick 33% 58% 10% 21% 28% 37% 38% 36%
C. Baker 25 10 55 30 31 20 15 14
T. Cahill 23 21 25 24 20 25 26 23
J. Stein 3 1 0 4 3 2 n/a n/a
Undec 16 11 10 21 17 15 22 26

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/8 9/15
D. Patrick 34% 59% 13% 22% 29% 40% 36% 36%
T. Cahill 26 21 25 30 25 27 26 24
C. Mihos 19 10 47 19 26 12 20 17
J. Stein 3 2 0 5 3 3 n/a n/a
Undec 18 9 15 25 17 18 18 23

Patrick As Gov.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/8
Approve 35% 55% 20% 25% 31% 39% 42%
Disapprove 54 36 75 63 60 48 51

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     11/8    9/15
D. Patrick 38%/50% 60%/29% 20%/68% 25%/62% 43%/47% 42%/45%
T. Cahill 31 /16 29 /15 32 /22 32 /16 41 /13 35 /12
C. Mihos 20 /28 14 /37 25 /30 25 /21 30 /25 27 /23
C. Baker 18 /12 9 /18 33 / 5 21 / 8 13 / 7 15/ 11

Does Patrick Deserve To Be Re-Elected, Or Is It Time To Elect Someone Else?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/8 9/15 3/20
Re-elect him 29% 49% 13% 17% 26% 31% 32% 29% 34%
Someone else 60 41 80 70 65 56 55 56 47
Undec 11 11 7 12 9 13 13 15 20

Do You Think Patrick Is A Weak Leader, Or Is He A Victim Of The Bad Economy?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Weak leader 68% 55% 78% 70% 70% 65%
Bad economy 22 36 11 19 21 22

Do You Think MA Would Be Better Off With A GOP Gov.?
-       All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 9/15
Yes 30% 12% 62% 36% 37% 24% 35%
No 48 76 15 35 42 54 54

Do You View Cahill As An Indie, Or Do You View Him As Still A Dem Who Left His Party To Run For GOV?
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Dem 47% 46% 53% 46% 48% 45%
Indie 26 24 28 26 25 26

Nevada
A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll; conducted 2/22-24 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research; surveyed 625 regular voters; margin of error +/- 3.9%. Oversample of 300 GOP primary regular voters; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 2/26). Tested: Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), ex-North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (R), Clark Co. Commis. Rory Reid (D) and ex-U.S. District Judge/ex-NV AG/ex-NV Gaming Commis. chair Brian Sandoval (R).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             Now 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
B. Sandoval 37% 39% 39% 41% 33%
J. Gibbons 30 23 18 20 17
M. Montandon 9 7 6 4 3
Others n/a n/a -- -- 1
Undec 24 31 37 35 46

General Election Matchups
-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
R. Reid 42% 70% 9% 42% 36% 48% 43% 48% 49% 47%
J. Gibbons 38 12 71 35 48 28 36 34 37 35
Undec 20 18 20 22 16 24 21 18 14 18

-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/7 12/2 10/8 8/18
B. Sandoval 51% 23% 84% 49% 56% 46% 53% 49% 50% 49%
R. Reid 29 55 5 29 23 35 31 34 33 32
Undec 20 22 11 22 21 19 16 17 17 19

Fav/Unfav
-             Now     1/7     12/2    10/8    6/19    5/14
B. Sandoval 33%/ 7% 36%/ 5% 39%/ 6% 38%/ 7% n/a n/a
R. Reid 22 /36 25 /35 23 /28 21 /29 n/a n/a
J. Gibbons 17 /51 18 /53 19 /50 15 /54 10%/57% 17%/52%

Senate 2010

Illinois
A Daily Kos poll; conducted 2/22-24 by Research 2000; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/25). Tested: Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R-10).

General Election Matchup
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/09
A. Giannoulias 43% 71% 6% 36% 40% 46% 38%
M. Kirk 36 9 79 35 40 32 30
Other 2 2 2 3 3 1 n/a
Undec 19 18 13 26 17 21 32

Fav/Unfav
-               All     Dem     GOP     Ind     1/09
A. Giannoulias 49%/34% 71%/14% 17%/64% 47%/35% 36%/15%
M. Kirk 42 /35 22 /50 75 /13 40 /34 37 /41

North Carolina
An Elon Univ. poll; conducted 2/22-25; surveyed 508 adults; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/26).

Burr As Sen.
-              Now 10/29
Approve 40% 37%
Disapprove 35 22

Would You Say You Are Satisfied With Burr As Sen.?
-              Now 10/29
Satisfied 40% 41%
Dissatisfied 37 22

Do You Think Burr Has Performed Well Enough To Deserve Re-Election, Or Do You Think It's Time To Give A New Person A Chance?
-                      Now 10/29
Deserves re-election 24% 19%
Time for new person 51 42
Undec 25 39

Fav/Unfav
R. Burr        30%/23%
E. Marshall 19 / 8
M. Williams 9 / 7
K. Lewis 9 / 7
E. Burks 7 / 7
C. Cunningham 6 / 9
E. Jones 6 / 8
M. Beitler 4 / 6

A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/23; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/26). Tested: Sen. Richard Burr (R), atty/Iraq vet/ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) and Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D).

General Election Matchups
-              Now 1/27
R. Burr 51% 50%
C. Cunningham 29 34
Other 6 5
Undec 14 11

-              Now 1/27 9/15
R. Burr 50% 47% 48%
E. Marshall 34% 37 38
Other 4 6 3
Undec 12 10 11

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     1/27    9/15
R. Burr 60%/28% 56%/32% 58%/26%
E. Marshall 44 /32 41 /36 37 /34
C. Cunningham 34 /34 34 /29 n/a

A Civitas Institute (R) poll; conducted 2/15-18 by Tel Opinion Research (R); surveyed 367 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.1% (release, 2/25). Tested: Cunningham, Marshall and atty/Obama fundraiser Ken Lewis.

Primary Election Matchup
-              All Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 1/21
E. Marshall 14% 17% 6% 13% 14% 12% 18% 14%
K. Lewis 5 5 3 7 3 3 7 7
C. Cunningham 4 5 0 5 3 3 7 4
Undec 77 72 91 74 80 82 67 75

Wisconsin
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 2/22-23 for developer Terrence Wall (R); surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/25). Tested: Wall and Sen. Russ Feingold (D).

General Election Matchup
R. Feingold   46%
T. Wall 39

Re-Elect Feingold?
Re-elect him 37%
New person 54

House 2010

FL-25
A Hill Research (R) poll; conducted 2/21-22; surveyed 300 GOP voters; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 2/24).

Fav/Unfav
A. Diaz de la Portilla  39%/ 9%
J. Martinez 34 /17
D. Rivera 24 / 5
C. Curbelo 11 / 5
C. Gimenez 11 / 5
M. Pizzi 10 / 3

NM-01
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18-20; surveyed 400 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 2/25). Party ID breakdown: 52%D, 31%R, 17%I. Tested: Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) and atty Jon Barela (R).

General Election Matchup
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
M. Heinrich 45% 73% 6% 31% 42% 48% 41% 50% 50% 45%
J. Barela 36 11 74 44 44 29 39 17 33 38
Undec 19 16 21 25 14 23 20 33 17 17

Heinrich As Rep.
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
Approve 40% 60% 12% 29% 39% 41% 38% -- 45% 34%
Disapprove 38 16 66 51 48 28 42 17 33 45

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
J. Barela 13%/15% 13%/16% 16%/11% 8%/18% 17%/21% 9%/ 9%

Obama As POTUS
-            All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
Approve 47% 75% 12% 28% 42% 52% 41% 67% 54% 45%
Disapprove 47 17 86 63 51 43 55 17 40 38

NM-02
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18-20; surveyed 400 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 2/25). Party ID breakdown: 47%D, 40%R, 13%I. Tested: Rep. Harry Teague (D) and '08 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Steve Pearce (R).

General Election Matchup
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
S. Pearce 43% 18% 72% 51% 43% 44% 63% 40% 23% 58%
H. Teague 41 64 14 41 47 35 27 40 58 23
Undec 16 19 14 9 10 21 11 20 20 19

Teague As Rep.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
Approve 41% 54% 26% 41% 40% 42% 31% 60% 52% 35%
Disapprove 36 24 50 41 41 32 49 40 24 32

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
S. Pearce 43%/31% 26%/46% 66%/14% 34%/32% 40%/33% 45%/30%

Obama As POTUS
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
Approve 44% 72% 14% 33% 43% 45% 24% 60% 65% 26%
Disapprove 49 20 82 57 50 49 71 40 26 71

NM-03
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18-20; surveyed 400 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 2/25). Party ID breakdown: 54%D, 33%R, Tested: Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D), Iraq vet/anti-war activist Adam Kokesh (R) and engineer Tom Mullins (R).

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
B. Luján 39% 64% 5% 26% 35% 42% 34% 31% 49% 41%
A. Kokesh 33 12 72 19 37 29 38 -- 26 24
Undec 28 24 23 55 27 29 27 69 25 35

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
B. Luján 40% 66% 4% 34% 37% 44% 36% 59% 49% 45%
T. Mullins 38 14 81 29 45 33 44 31 28 35
Undec 21 21 15 36 18 24 21 10 23 20

Luján As Rep.
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
Approve 29% 47% 4% 22% 26% 32% 26% 14% 34% 39%
Disapprove 42 24 71 42 48 38 45 72 38 31

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     Men     Wom
T. Mullins 10%/ 9% 5%/10% 17%/ 8% 13%/10% 11%/ 8% 10%/10%
A. Kokesh 5 /18 5 /20 4 /15 6 /17 5 /21 4 /15

Obama As POTUS
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
Approve 45% 73% 5% 35% 44% 46% 41% 45% 48% 61%
Disapprove 47 17 91 54 50 44 52 41 39 39

SD-AL
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/23; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/25). Tested: Tested: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D), state Sen. Blake Curd (R), Sec/State Chris Nelson (R) and state Rep. Kristi Noem (R).

General Election Matchups
S. Herseth Sandlin  51%
B. Curd 33
Other 5
Undec 12

S. Herseth Sandlin  45%
C. Nelson 38
Other 6
Undec 11

S. Herseth Sandlin  49%
K. Noem 34
Other 4
Undec 13

Governor 2010

Oregon
A Moore Information (R) poll; conducted 2/20-21; surveyed 500 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/25). Tested: '08 Treas. nominee/businessman Allen Alley (R), ex-Portland Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley (R) and ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D).

General Election Matchups
J. Kitzhaber  45%             J. Kitzhaber  45%
A. Alley 33 C. Dudley 33
Undec 22 Undec 21

South Carolina
A Winthrop Univ. poll; conducted 2/6-21; surveyed 837 adults; margin of error +/- 3.4% (release, 2/25).

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP
A. Bauer 24%/27% n/a 25%/24%
H. McMaster 21 /10 n/a 30 / 7
J. Rex 12 / 6 15%/ 5% n/a
G. Barrett 10 / 5 n/a 16 / 3
R. Ford 10 / 7 10 / 4 n/a
N. Haley 9 / 4 n/a 7 / 1
M. McLeod 8 / 3 12 / 4 n/a
D. Drake 6 / 4 10 / 4 n/a

Senate 2010

Delaware
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/22; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/25). Tested: Rep. Mike Castle (R) and New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D).

General Election Matchup
-          Now 1/25
M. Castle 53% 56%
C. Coons 32 27
Other 8 5
Undec 8 13

Fav/Unfav
-          Now     1/25    9/30
M. Castle 65%/30% 66%/25% 61%/34%
C. Coons 43 /35 47 /30 n/a

Georgia
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/24).

General Election Matchup
J. Isakson   49%
Generic Dem 36
Other 4
Undec 12

South Carolina
A Winthrop Univ. poll; conducted 2/6-21; surveyed 837 adults; margin of error +/- 3.4% (release, 2/25).

DeMint As Sen.
-           All Dem GOP Ind
Approve 43% 26% 61% 48%
Disapprove 28 42 14 30

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

House 2010

KS-01
A KWCH-TV poll; conducted 2/19=22 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 490 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/23). Tested: '06 GOV nominee/doctor/state Sen. Jim Barnett, prof. Sue Boldra, atty Marck Cobb, state Sen. Tim Huelskamp, real-estate agent Tracy Mann, ex-Salina Mayor Monte Shadwick, and ex-Sen. Brownback CoS Rob Wasinger.

Primary Election Matchup
-             All Men Wom
J. Barnett 23% 23% 22%
T. Huelskamp 16 18 13
R. Wasinger 8 8 9
S. Boldra 5 4 6
T. Mann 4 5 4
M. Shadwick 4 6 1
M. Cobb 2 1 3
Other 15 13 17
Undec 23 22 25

KS-03
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 2/9, 11 for '08 nominee/state Sen. Nick Jordan (R); surveyed 300 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 5.7% (release, 2/15). Tested: Jordan, ret.-Marine Dan Gilyeat, ex-state Rep. Patricia Lightner, ex-DoJ aide/'06 nominee Ahner mgr. Craig McPherson, ex-Johnson Co. chair candidate Charlotte O'Hara, pharmaceutical salesman John Rysavy, activist Tom Scherer and state Rep. Kevin Yoder.

Primary Election Matchup
N. Jordan     27%
K. Yoder 9
P. Lightner 5
C. O'Hara 5
D. Gilyeat 1
C. McPherson 1
J. Rysavy 1
T. Scherer 1

Fav/Unfav
N. Jordan     35%/ 5%

Governor 2010

Florida
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18; surveyed 1,000 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 2/23). Tested: AG Bill McCollum (R) and CFO Alex Sink (D).

General Election Matchup
-            Now 2/1 12/14 10/20 6/22
B. McCollum 48% 46% 44% 46% 42%
A. Sink 35 35 39 35 34
Other 4 5 5 5 7
Undec 12 13 12 15 18

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     2/1     12/14   10/20   6/22
B. McCollum 53%/29% 53%/30% 54%/30% 49%/31% 53%/25%
A. Sink 38 /34 39 /34 45 /31 41 /30 50 /32

Georgia
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/22). Tested: Ex-Gov. Roy Barnes (D), Rep. Nathan Deal (R-09), Sec/State Karen Handel (R), state Sen. Eric Johnson (R) and Insurance Commis. John Oxendine (R).

General Election Matchups
-            Now 1/20
N. Deal 43% 42%
R. Barnes 37 43
Other 7 7
Undec 14 8

-            Now 1/20
K. Handel 45% 42%
R. Barnes 36 43
Other 5 5
Undec 14 10

E. Johnson   37%
R. Barnes 37
Other 8
Undec 18

-            Now 1/20
J. Oxendine 45% 44%
R. Barnes 37 42
Other 7 6
Undec 10 8

Fav/Unfav
-            Now     1/20
J. Oxendine 58%/31% 59%/29%
K. Handel 53 /24 52 /24
R. Barnes 48 /43 52 /38
N. Deal 40 /27 44 /29
E. Johnson 36 /25 n/a

New Mexico
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18-20; surveyed 990 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 2/24). Party ID breakdown: 53%D, 32%R, 15%I. Tested: State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R), atty Pete Domenici Jr. (R), Doña Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez (R), PR firm owner/ex-Gov. Johnson mgr. Doug Turner (R), businessman/ex-NM GOP chair Allen Weh (R) and LG Diane Denish (D).

General Election Matchups
-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
D. Denish 47% 74% 11% 32% 44% 50% 42% 21% 57% 31%
J. Arnold-Jones 33 13 66 37 37 30 40 49 25 38
Undec 19 13 23 32 19 20 18 30 19 31

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
D. Denish 45% 71% 8% 32% 42% 48% 41% 35% 52% 32%
P. Domenici 40 17 75 47 44 37 44 48 35 49
Undec 15 12 17 20 14 16 15 16 13 19

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
D. Denish 46% 71% 11% 32% 44% 49% 42% 28% 54% 32%
S. Martinez 32 14 62 34 38 27 35 54 27 39
Undec 21 15 27 34 19 24 23 17 19 29

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
D. Denish 46% 73% 8% 27% 43% 48% 40% 28% 55% 28%
D. Turner 32 12 62 37 36 28 38 48 24 35
Undec 22 14 30 36 21 24 22 23 21 37

-                All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth
D. Denish 48% 75% 9% 32% 47% 48% 41% 35% 58% 34%
A. Weh 30 10 63 30 33 27 37 32 21 28
Undec 22 14 29 38 20 24 22 33 21 38

Fav/Unfav
-                All     Dem     GOP     Ind
D. Denish 41%/34% 57%/22% 18%/56% 31%/32%
P. Domenici 27 /35 19 /44 41 /20 25 /36
S. Martinez 17 /21 14 /23 20 /17 19 /19
D. Turner 12 /19 8 /24 16 /12 19 /18
A. Weh 12 /20 8 /25 20 /12 13 /22
J. Arnold-Jones 8 /21 9 /21 8 /18 8 /24

Pennsylvania
A Philadelphia Daily News/WGAL-TV/Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/WTAE-TV/WPVI-TV/Times-Shamrock Newspapers poll; conducted 2/15-21 by Franklin & Marshall College; surveyed 1,143 adults; margin of error +/- 2.9%. Subsamples of 481 Dem RVs and 340 GOP RVs; margins of error +/- 4.5% and 5.3%, respectively (release, 2/24). Tested: Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty (D), '04 SEN nominee/Montgomery Co. Commis./ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D), '07 Philly mayor candidate/ex-Philly Dep. Mayor/businessman Tom Knox (D), Allegheny Co. Exec. Dan Onorato (D), Aud. Jack Wagner (D), state Sen. Anthony Williams (D), AG Tom Corbett (R) and state Rep. Sam Rohrer (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-            Now 1/24 10/25
D. Onorato 6% 10% 10%
J. Wagner 6 4 9
J. Hoeffel 6 4 6
C. Doherty 4 4 3
A. Williams 1 n/a n/a
T. Knox n/a 2 3
Other 5 7 3
Undec 72 72 66

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-            Now 1/24
T. Corbett 26% 23%
S. Rohrer 4 5
Other 5 3
Undec 65 69

Fav/Unfav
T. Corbett   21%/ 6%

Rhode Island
A Brown Univ. poll; conducted 2/9-12; surveyed 605 RVS; margin of error +/- 4.0%. Subsample of 357 Dems; margin of error +/- 5.2% (release, 2/23). Tested: Treas. Frank Caprio (D), ex-GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I), AG Patrick Lynch (D) and ex-Gov. Carcieri comm. dir. John Robitaille (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
F. Caprio       31%
P. Lynch 22
Undec 48

General Election Matchups
L. Chafee       34%
F. Caprio 28
J. Robitaille 12
Undec 26

L. Chafee       33%
P. Lynch 18
J. Robitaille 14
Undec 36

Caprio As Treas.
-               Now 12/6
Excellent/good 43% 39%
Only fair/poor 31 26

Lynch As AG
-               Now 12/6
Excellent/good 37% 38%
Only fair/poor 53 47

Texas
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/23; surveyed 500 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/24). Tested: Gov. Rick Perry (R), Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) and Wharton Co. GOP chair/ex-nurse Debra Medina (R).

Primary Election Matchup
-                Now 2/1 1/17 11/11 9/16 7/15 5/6
R. Perry 48% 44% 43% 46% 38% 46% 42%
K. B. Hutchison 27 29 33 35 40 36 38
D. Medina 16 16 12 4 3 n/a n/a
Other n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 5 7
Undec 9 11 11 14 19 14 13

Perry As Gov.
-                Now 2/1 1/17 11/11 9/16
Approve 66% 74% 68% 73% 69%
Disapprove 32 25 31 25 29

Fav/Unfav
-                Now     2/1     1/17    11/11   9/16
R. Perry 67%/31% 80%/19% 72%/26% 75%/24% 72%/26%
K. B. Hutchison 56 /42 67 /31 73 /25 75 /23 71 /26
D. Medina 35 /47 50 /29 43 /29 16 /29 18 /29

Wisconsin
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/23). Tested: '02 candidate/Milwaukee Mayor/ex-Rep. Tom Barrett (D), '98 SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Mark Neumann (R) and Milwaukee Co. Exec. Scott Walker (R).

General Election Matchups
M. Neumann  44%               S. Walker   49%
T. Barrett 42 T. Barrett 40
Other 4 Other 1
Undec 10 Undec 10

Fav/Unfav
S. Walker   55%/29%
M. Neumann 49 /31
T. Barrett 49 /36

Senate 2010

Kentucky
A Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies (R) (IVR); conducted 2/18; surveyed 560 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 2/24). Tested: Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) and Ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R).

Primary Election Matchup
R. Paul     44%
T. Grayson 23
Undec 33

Fav/Unfav
R. Paul     43%/12%
T. Grayson 31 /20

Ohio
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 2/16-21; surveyed 1,662 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.4%. Subsample of 604 Dems; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/24). Tested: Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D), LG Lee Fisher (D) and ex-Rep./ex-OMB Dir. Rob Portman (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-           All Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15 2/2
L. Fisher 29% 39% 21% 24% 26% 24% 20% 18% 18%
J. Brunner 20 19 21 22 17 21 16 14 16
Other 2 3 1 1 1 2 5 19 14
Not vote 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 --
Undec 48 37 55 51 55 51 59 46 53

General Election Matchups
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15
R. Portman 40% 7% 75% 40% 48% 33% 38% 34% 34% 32% 34%
J. Brunner 35 74 6 28 32 38 34 39 35 40 39
Other -- -- -- 1 -- -- -- 1 1 -- 1
Not vote 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 -- 2
Undec 23 18 18 29 18 27 27 25 29 27 25

-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15
R. Portman 40% 6% 77% 39% 45% 35% 39% 31% 33% 31% 33%
L. Fisher 37 79 6 27 35 38 36 42 37 42 41
Other -- -- -- 1 -- -- -- 1 2 1 1
Not vote 2 -- -- 5 3 2 1 1 2 -- 2
Undec 21 14 17 28 17 25 24 26 26 26 24

Fisher As LG
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4
Approve 39% 59% 24% 37% 38% 41% 39% 44% 39% 49%
Disapprove 22 10 32 22 26 18 23 21 24 17

Brunner As Sec/State
-           All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15
Approve 36% 56% 17% 37% 33% 39% 38% 41% 38% 45% 41%
Disapprove 25 9 43 24 31 19 25 23 25 20 19

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     11/9    9/13
L. Fisher 26%/12% 47%/ 3% 12%/18% 22%/14% 25%/15% 33%/13%
R. Portman 25 / 7 8 /14 39 / 3 29 / 7 22 / 7 20 / 7
J. Brunner 21 /12 37 / 3 7 /22 20 /13 20 /18 27 /14

Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote, Who Do You ___? (Dems)
-                                              Fisher Brunner
Trust to do what they say during the campaign 34% 31%
Believe most shares your values 31 29
See as more consistently liberal 28 26

Pennsylvania
A Philadelphia Daily News/WGAL-TV/Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/WTAE-TV/WPVI-TV/Times-Shamrock Newspapers poll; conducted 2/15-21 by Franklin & Marshall College; surveyed 1,143 adults; margin of error +/- 2.9%. Subsample of 951 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.2%. Further subsample of 481 Dem RVs; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 1/27). Party reg. breakdown (RVs): 51%D, 36%R, 10%I. Tested: Sen. Arlen Specter (D), Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) and '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R). (Note: The General Election Matchup crosstabs are among LVs. The poll surveyed 324 LVs; margin of error +/- 5.4%.)

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-           Now 1/24 10/25 8/31 6/21
A. Specter 33% 30% 30% 37% 33%
J. Sestak 16 13 18 11 13
Other 7 7 5 6 6
Undec 44 50 47 46 48

General Election Matchups (RVs)
-                   LVs LVs LVs LVs LVs RVs  RVs   RVs  RVs
- All LVs Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/24 10/25 8/31 4/27
A. Specter 33% 34% 63% 9% 15% 29% 39% 30% 33% 37% 29%
P. Toomey 29 44 17 75 36 48 40 30 31 29 26
Other 9 6 7 4 13 8 5 5 6 9 9
Undec 29 16 14 12 36 14 17 35 30 25 36

-                   LVs LVs LVs LVs LVs RVs  RVs   RVs
- All LVs Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/24 10/25 8/31
P. Toomey 25% 38% 12% 67% 32% 43% 32% 28% 28% 26%
J. Sestak 22 20 39 3 12 19 22 16 20 22
Other 6 3 4 2 4 3 3 5 4 6
Undec 47 39 46 28 51 35 43 51 48 46

Re-elect Specter? (RVs)
-                    Now 1/24 10/25 8/31 6/21 3/22 10/97
Deserves reelection 25% 29% 23% 34% 28% 40% 49%
Time for a change 63 60 66 54 57 46 40
Undec 12 11 11 12 15 14 11

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     1/24    10/25   8/31    6/21    3/22
A. Specter 32%/45% 35%/43% 28%/47% 35%/42% 31%/37% 48%/24%
P. Toomey 16 / 7 15 / 7 16 /10 18 /10 n/a n/a
J. Sestak 10 / 3 8 / 6 11 / 5 13 / 4 n/a n/a

Specter As Sen.
-               Now 1/24 10/25 8/31 6/21 3/22 2/09 8/07 2/04
Excellent/good 30% 34% 29% 35% 34% 52% 43% 51% 39%
Only fair/poor 62 58 64 57 55 37 49 45 42

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

House 2010

NM-02
A Tarrance Group (R) poll; conducted 2/16-18 for ex-Rep. Steve Pearce (R); surveyed 401 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 2/19). Tested: Pearce and Rep. Harry Teague (D).

General Election Matchups
S. Pearce      48%
H. Teague 44
Undec 8

Generic GOPer  47%
Generic Dem 37

Re-Elect Teague?
Re-elect him   38%
Someone new 47

Governor 2010

Iowa
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/22). Tested: Gov. Chet Culver (D), ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R) and '02 candidate/'06 LG nominee Bob Vander Plaats (R).

General Election Matchups
-            Now 9/22                           Now 9/22
T. Branstad 53% 54% B. Vander Plaats 46% 43%
C. Culver 37 34 C. Culver 40 39
Other 6 8 Other 7 9
Undec 4 4 Undec 7 9

Fav/Unfav
-                 Now     9/22
T. Branstad 57%/38% 64%/29%
B. Vander Plaats 43 /34 45 /30
C. Culver 42 /55 43 /50

Culver As Gov.
-            Now 9/22
Approve 41% 43%
Disapprove 57 53

Kansas
A KWCH-TV poll; conducted 2/12-14 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4/0% (release, 2/16).

Brownback As Sen.
-           Now 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27 7/19 6/14 5/29
Approve 56% 51% 49% 57% 48% 54% 50% 54% 53%
Disapprove 37 40 40 30 42 36 34 36 37

Nevada
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 2/15-16 for the Retail Assn of NV; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4%. Subsample of 185 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 7.2% (release, 2/22). Party ID breakdown: 42%D, 37%R, 18%I. Tested: Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), ex-North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (R), ex-U.S. District Judge/ex-NV AG/ex-NV Gaming Commis. chair Brian Sandoval (R) and Clark Co. Commis. Rory Reid (D).

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
B. Sandoval   38%
J. Gibbons 32
M. Montandon 9
Undec 19M

General Election Matchups
R. Reid       47%
J. Gibbons 36
Undec 14

M. Montandon  40%
R. Reid 40
Undec 19M

B. Sandoval   50%
R. Reid 34
Undec 15

Fav/Unfav
B. Sandoval   37%/10%
J. Gibbons 29 /58
R. Reid 23 /37
M. Montandon 10 / 5

Ohio
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 2/16-21; surveyed 1,662 RVs; margin of error +/- 2.4% (release, 2/23). Tested: Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and ex-Rep. John Kasich (R).

General Election Matchup
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15
T. Strickland 44% 82% 11% 38% 38% 48% 40% 46% 43% 51% 51%
J. Kasich 39 9 73 38 45 33 40 36 38 32 31
Other 1 1 -- 1 1 -- 1 2 2 1 1
Not vote 2 -- -- 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 2
Undec 15 8 16 19 13 17 18 15 16 16 15

Strickland As Gov.
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15
Approve 48% 73% 28% 44% 45% 50% 45% 48% 46% 57% 56%
Disapprove 40 20 59 43 47 35 43 42 42 29 30

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     11/9
T. Strickland 45%/36% 68%/15% 22%/59% 45%/37% 38%/37%
J. Kasich 26 /10 10 /17 42 / 4 29 /10 23 / 7

Strickland Handling Economy
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15
Approve 35% 60% 16% 33% 35% 35% 33% 33% 33% 43% 39%
Disapprove 53 32 71 56 55 51 52 54 53 43 45

Strickland Handling OH Budget
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15 2/09
Approve 32% 51% 15% 30% 32% 32% 36% 32% 43% 44% 48%
Disapprove 51 31 68 54 53 49 47 53 40 36 30

Who Would Do A Better Job Rebuilding OH's Economy?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9
J. Kasich 41% 15% 67% 44% 48% 35% 41%
T. Strickland 35 64 11 31 33 37 33
No difference 2 2 1 2 2 1 --
Undec 22 19 20 23 17 27 27

Who Would Do A Better Job Handling OH's Budget?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9
J. Kasich 42% 18% 70% 43% 50% 35% 42%
T. Strickland 36 66 11 31 36 37 34
No difference 1 1 1 1 1 1 --
Undec 21 15 19 25 14 27 25

Who Do You Trust More To Do In Office What They Say They Will Do During The Campaign?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
J. Kasich 36% 13% 63% 36% 41% 31%
T. Strickland 35 63 13 31 34 36
No difference 6 5 3 8 8 4
Undec 22 19 21 25 16 28

Who Do You Believe Most Shares Your Values?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
T. Strickland 40% 70% 14% 37% 37% 42%
J. Kasich 36 11 66 35 42 31
No difference 3 1 3 5 5 2
Undec 21 17 18 23 16 25

Do You Think Strickland Has Kept His Campaign Promises So Far?
-      All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 11/9 9/13 7/1 5/4 3/15 2/09
Yes 34% 55% 17% 31% 36% 32% 32% 37% 34% 44% 46% 46%
No 45 28 59 48 46 43 43 40 40 32 30 27

Texas
A Public Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; conducted 2/19-21; surveyed 361 Dem primary LVs and 400 GOP primary LVs; margins of error +/- 5.2% and +/- 4.9%, respectively (release, 2/23). Tested: Gov. Rick Perry (R), Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), Wharton Co. GOP chair/ex-nurse Debra Medina (R), physician Alma Ludivina Aguado (D), teacher Felix Alvarado (D), private investigator Bill Dear (D), Prairie View A & M assoc. prof. Clement Glenn (D), '06 GOP candidate/rancher/home-builder Star Locke (D), hair-care mogul Farouk Shami (D) and Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-             All Men Wom Wht Blk His Oth 2/7
B. White 59% 57% 61% 72% 52% 48% 38% 49%
F. Shami 12 17 9 6 14 19 25 19
F. Alvarado 5 4 5 -- -- 14 -- 5
A. Aguado 3 3 2 2 -- 5 -- 2
C. Glenn 2 3 1 1 3 -- 13 1
B. Dear 1 3 -- 1 3 -- -- 0
S. Locke 0 1 -- -- -- -- 13 0
Undec 18 12 22 24 17 28 14 13

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom 2/7
R. Perry 40% 34% 47% 39%
K. Hutchison 31 34 28 28
D. Medina 20 24 16 24
Undec 9 8 9 10

Primary Runoff Election Matchups (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom
R. Perry 52% 48% 57%
K. Hutchison 35 37 33
Undec 12 15 9

-             All Men Wom
R. Perry 56% 52% 60%
D. Medina 36 40 32
Undec 8 8 9

Perry As Gov. (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom 2/7
Approve 50% 44% 56% 50%
Disapprove 41 45 36 36

Hutchison As Sen. (GOPers)
-             All Men Wom 2/7
Approve 47% 47% 48% 51%
Disapprove 43 44 42 28

Fav/Unfav (GOPers)
-             All     Men     Wom     2/7
G.W. Bush 79%/14% 76%/18% 82%/10% n/a
R. Paul 38 /30 43 /32 32 /28 n/a
D. Medina 36 /30 40 /29 32 /32 40%/ 9%

Senate 2010

California
A KABC-TV/KFSN-TV/KGTV-TV/KPIX-TV poll; conducted 2/12-14 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/16).

Boxer As Sen.
- Now 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/29 8/27 7/19 6/14 5/29
Approve 47% 48% 39% 43% 41% 46% 50% 48% 54%
Disapprove 43 45 49 47 48 44 42 47 41

Florida
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18; surveyed 1,000 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 2/23). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist (R), ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17).

General Election Matchups
- Now 1/27 12/14 10/19 8/17 6/22
C. Crist 48% 48% 42% 46% 48% 46%
K. Meek 32 33 36 34 29 28
Other 11 10 11 9 10 12
Undec 9 9 11 11 13 14

- Now 1/27 12/14 10/19 8/17
M. Rubio 51% 49% 49% 46% 43%
K. Meek 31 32 35 31 30
Other 7 6 4 8 8
Undec 11 13 12 15 19

Crist As Gov.
- Now 1/27 12/14 10/20
Approve 52% 51% 52% 49%
Disapprove 45 47 45 49

Fav/Unfav
- Now 1/27 12/14 10/19 8/17 6/22
C. Crist 55%/41% 58%/40% 59%/38% 57%/41% 64%/35% 57%/36%
M. Rubio 51 /27 51 /31 41 /33 33 /34 41 /31 n/a
K. Meek 42 /33 38 /36 51 /29 39 /34 37 /34 37 /36

Iowa
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/22). Tested: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), '82 GOV nominee/ex-U.S. Atty Roxanne Conlin (D), atty/ex-state Sen. Tom Fiegen (D) and ex-state Rep. Bob Krause (D).

General Election Matchups
- Now 1/26
C. Grassley 53% 59%
R. Conlin 36 31
Other 5 4
Undec 6 5

- Now 1/26
C. Grassley 56% 61%
T. Fiegen 28 25
Other 6 4
Undec 11 10

- Now 1/26 9/22
C. Grassley 55% 59% 56%
B. Krause 33 26 30
Other 5 7 7
Undec 8 8 7

Fav/Unfav
- Now 1/26 9/22
C. Grassley 68%/29% 67%/30% 68%/30%
R. Conlin 35 /45 35 /45 n/a
B. Krause 27 /31 27 /35 33 /30
T. Fiegen 22 /34 23 /37 n/a

Nevada
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 2/15-16 for the Retail Assn of NV; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4%. Subsample of 185 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 7.2% (release, 2/22). Party ID breakdown: 42%D, 37%R, 18%I. Tested: Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D), state Sen. Mark Amodei (R), '06 NV-02 candidate/ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R), Wall St. banker John Chachas (R), Assemb. Chad Christensen (R), ex-state GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R), '06 Sec/State nominee/businessman/ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian (R) and Tea Party candidate/businessman Jon Ashjian.

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
S. Lowden 35%
D. Tarkanian 28
S. Angle 8
C. Christensen 4
M. Amodei 1
J. Chachas 0
Undec 24

General Election Matchups
H. Reid 40%
M. Amodei 25
J. Ashjian 19
Undec 16

H. Reid 37%
S. Angle 32
J. Ashjian 16
Undec 14

H. Reid 39%
J. Ashjian 22
J. Chachas 21
Undec 17

S. Lowden 42%
H. Reid 37
J. Ashjian 9
Undec 12

D. Tarkanian 40%
H. Reid 39
J. Ashjian 11
Undec 11

Fav/Unfav
S. Lowden 39%/17%
D. Tarkanian 35 /17
H. Reid 35 /58
C. Christensen 8 / 5
M. Amodei 7 / 5
J. Chachas 3 / 4

A Research 2000 poll; conducted 2/9-10 for the Progressive Change Campaign Cmte (D), Democracy for America (D) and Credo Action (D); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/22). Tested:

General Election Matchups
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
S. Lowden 53% 20% 88% 58% 60% 46%
H. Reid 39 72 5 32 36 42
Undec 8 8 7 10 4 12

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Tarkanian 54% 21% 89% 59% 60% 48%
H. Reid 40 73 5 34 36 44
Undec 6 6 6 7 4 8

Oregon
A KATU-TV poll; conducted 2/12-14 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/16).

Wyden As Sen.
- Now 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27 7/19 6/14 5/29
Approve 50% 53% 53% 51% 55% 56% 53% 55% 55%
Disapprove 37 40 40 40 32 35 34 37 33

Washington
A KATU-TV/KING-TV poll; conducted 2/12-14 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 600 adults; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 2/16).

Murray As Sen.
- Now 1/10 12/13 11/22 9/28 8/27 7/19 6/14 5/29
Approve 43% 55% 52% 47% 48% 47% 50% 56% 50%
Disapprove 50 39 40 45 41 43 45 35 34

Monday, February 22, 2010

Governor 2010

Alaska
A Hays Research Group (D) poll; conducted 1/25-26; surveyed 400 regular voters; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release).

Fav/Unfav
-           Now     11/21   7/30
S. Parnell 73%/15% 72%/13% 67%/ 8%

New Mexico
A NMSU poll; conducted 2/9-13; surveyed 444 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.7% (release). Tested: State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R), atty Pete Domenici Jr. (R), Doña Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez (R), PR firm owner/ex-Gov. Johnson mgr. Doug Turner (R) and businessman/ex-NM GOP chair Allen Weh (R)

Primary Election Matchup
P. Domenici      29%
S. Martinez 12
A. Weh 7
D. Turner 7
J. Arnold-Jones 3
Undec 43

New York
A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 2/14-19; surveyed 805 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5%. Subsample of 377 Dems; margin of error +/- 5.0% (release, 2/22). Tested: Gov. David Paterson (D), AG Andrew Cuomo (D) and '00 SEN nominee/JPMorgan exec. VP/ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-            All Wht Blk His 12/9 11/12 10/18 9/17 8/20 7/16
A. Cuomo 64% 72% 51% 55% 67% 75% 70% 66% 65% 65%
D. Paterson 22 14 33 21 23 16 20 20 23 23
Undec 14 14 16 24 10 8 10 14 12 13

General Election Matchups
-            All Dem GOP Ind 1/14 12/9 11/12 10/18 9/17 8/20
R. Lazio 46% 31% 75% 48% 42% 40% 42% 37% 35% 37%
D. Paterson 39 56 14 32 42 42 39 39 39 38
Undec 15 13 11 20 16 18 19 23 26 25

-            All Dem GOP Ind 1/14 12/9 11/12 10/18 9/17 8/20
A. Cuomo 63% 80% 36% 56% 66% 68% 67% 66% 64% 66%
R. Lazio 26 11 54 28 24 22 22 21 18 16
Undec 11 10 10 15 10 10 11 14 18 18

Elect Paterson?
-                All Dem GOP Ind 1/14 12/9 11/12 10/18 9/17
Elect him 19% 25% 13% 13% 21% 19% 17% 15% 14%
Prefer another 64 58 75 64 60 65 69 72 71
Undec 17 16 12 23 19 16 15 13 16

Paterson As Gov.
-                All Dem GOP Ind 1/14 12/9 11/12 10/18 9/17
Excellent/good 22% 28% 16% 20% 24% 23% 21% 19% 18%
Fair/poor 76 71 83 80 75 76 79 79 80

Fav/Unfav
-            All     Dem     GOP     Ind     1/14    12/9
A. Cuomo 66%/21% 74%/14% 55%/30% 62%/27% 67%/21% 67%/19%
D. Paterson 35 /55 39 /48 27 /65 33 /59 38 /52 36 /53
R. Lazio 31 /26 31 /27 33 /23 29 /27 27 /30 25 /25

Would You Prefer To See Cuomo Run For Reelection As AG Or For GOV?
-                All Dem GOP Ind 1/14 12/9 11/12 10/18 9/17
For GOV 51% 59% 42% 46% 53% 50% 52% 49% 47%
Reelect as AG 33 28 37 35 30 31 28 36 34

Should Cuomo Publicly Declare Now Whether He's Running For AG Or For GOV, Or Does He Have Time To Wait Several Months Before Publicly Announcing?
-                All Dem GOP Ind 1/14 12/9 11/12
Declare now 41% 50% 28% 36% 37% 35% 33%
Time to wait 43 34 57 47 49 51 52

Regardless Of Who The Candidates Are, And All Other Things Being Equal, Would You Prefer The Gov. Elected This Year To Be ___?
-                                           All Dem GOP Ind
Someone with a lot of experience in Albany 53% 61% 42% 47%
An Albany outsider 36 29 48 40

Recently, Rumors Circulated That Paterson Was Involved In Some Activites That Could Lead To His Resignation. Paterson Denies Any Wrongdoing.
-                                           All Dem GOP Ind
I may not agree with everything Paterson 66% 69% 63% 67%
does, but I don't believe the rumors
I'm afraid Paterson may very well have 22 21 26 20
acted inappropriately while in office

Oregon
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/19). Tested: '08 Treas. nominee/businessman Allen Alley (R), ex-Portland Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley (R), '90 candidate/'98 SEN nominee/businessman/ex-state Sen. John Lim (R), '98 nominee/anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore (R), '02 SEN nominee/ex-Sec/State Bill Bradbury (D) and ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D).

General Election Matchups
B. Bradbury   41%             J. Kitzhaber  42%
A. Alley 35 A. Alley 34
Other 9 Other 8
Undec 16 Undec 16

B. Bradbury   39%             J. Kitzhaber  42%
C. Dudley 36 C. Dudley 34
Other 7 Other 7
Undec 17 Undec 15

B. Bradbury   38%             J. Kitzhaber  40%
J. Lim 35 J. Lim 38
Other 9 Other 8
Undec 17 Undec 14

B. Bradbury   48%             J. Kitzhaber  48%
B. Sizemore 23 B. Sizemore 25
Other 16 Other 15
Undec 13 Undec 11

Fav/Unfav
B. Bradbury   46%/31%
J. Kitzhaber 44 /42
C. Dudley 40 /24
J. Lim 31 /28
A. Alley 30 /29
B. Sizemore 22 /60

Senate 2010

Florida
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/18; surveyed 442 GOP primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.7% (release, 2/22). Tested: Gov. Charlie Crist and ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

Primary Election Matchup
-           Now 1/27 12/14 10/20 8/17
M. Rubio 54% 49% 43% 35% 31%
C. Crist 36 37 43 49 53
Other 4 3 5 4 5
Undec 7 11 9 12 11

Crist As Gov.
Fav/Unfav

-           Now     1/27    12/14   10/20   8/17
M. Rubio 67%/15% 67%/14% 64%/15% 55%/22% 53%/19%
C. Crist 54 /44 62 /37 61 /38 67 /32 75 /23

Iowa
A Des Moines Register poll; conducted 1/31-2/3 by Selzer & Co.; surveyed 805 adults; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 2/21).

Grassley As Sen.
-           Now 11/11 9/16 4/1 1/09
Approve 54% 57% 57% 66% 75%
Disapprove 28 32 30 20 12

New York
A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 2/14-19; surveyed 805 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 2/22).

Re-Elect Schumer?
-               All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Re-elect him 55% 71% 33% 48% 51% 58%
Prefer another 36 23 57 40 43 30
Undec 9 7 10 11 6 12

Fav/Unfav
-           All     Dem     GOP     Ind     12/9    11/12
C. Schumer 61%/29% 80%/16% 27%/69% 57%/40% 60%/28% 60%/30%

A Siena Research Institute poll; conducted 2/14-19; surveyed 805 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5%. Subsample of 377 Dems; margin of error +/- 5.0% (release, 2/22). Tested: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), '06 TN SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D), '06 candidate Jonathan Tasini (D), '98 Comp. nominee/ex-Nassau Co. legislator/ex-Port Authority Commis. Bruce Blakeman (R), ex-Gov. George Pataki (R) and Daily News owner Mort Zuckerman (R).

Primary Election Matchup (Dems)
-              All Men Wom Wht Blk His 1/14
K. Gillibrand 42% 39% 44% 50% 30% 24% 41%
H. Ford 16 21 13 15 19 17 17
J. Tasini 4 6 2 3 4 7 5
Undec 38 34 40 45 34 27 37

General Election Matchups
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/14 12/9 11/12 10/18
G. Pataki 47% 30% 74% 55% 54% 40% 51% 43% 44% 46%
K. Gillibrand 41 57 16 32 36 45 38 46 45 41
Undec 13 13 10 13 10 15 11 12 12 13

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
K. Gillibrand 51% 69% 25% 44% 45% 55%
B. Blakeman 24 12 49 26 32 18
Undec 25 20 26 31 23 27

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
K. Gillibrand 49% 65% 24% 43% 43% 53%
M. Zuckerman 29 14 57 30 38 22
Undec 22 21 19 27 20 25

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/14
G. Pataki 48% 33% 73% 55% 56% 42% 54%
H. Ford 34 49 13 27 28 39 32
Undec 17 18 14 18 15 19 14

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
H. Ford 41% 60% 14% 32% 39% 43%
B. Blakeman 23 9 49 26 30 18
Undec 36 31 37 42 31 40

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
H. Ford 40% 59% 12% 31% 35% 43%
M. Zuckerman 26 12 56 25 35 19
Undec 34 29 33 44 30 38

Elect Gillibrand?
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/14 12/9 11/12
Elect her 30% 36% 23% 27% 28% 32% 29% 30% 33%
Prefer another 40 31 55 44 47 35 45 34 38
Undec 30 33 22 28 25 33 26 35 29

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     1/14
G. Pataki 56%/34% 53%/38% 62%/29% 58%/33% 55%/34%
K. Gillibrand 34 /28 41 /18 21 /44 36 /30 30 /32
H. Ford 25 /19 19 /19 20 /20 22 /19 21 /16
M. Zuckerman 18 /18 17 /20 16 /16 21 /17 n/a
B. Blakeman 5 /11 5 /11 6 / 9 4 /11 n/a


Thursday, February 18, 2010

Governor 2010 - Vermont

Vermont
A WCAX-TV poll; conducted 2/14-16 by Research 2000; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 2/17). Tested: State Sen. Susan Bartlett (D), Google community affairs mgr./'06 LG nominee/ex-state Sen. Matt Dunne (D), Sec/State Deb Markowitz (D), '02 nominee/state Sen./ex-LG Doug Racine (D), '02 LG nominee/state Senate Pres. Pro Tem Peter Shumlin (D), LG Brian Dubie (R) and '00 Prog. nominee/'08 indie candidate Anthony Pollina (Prog.).

General Election Matchups
-             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Dubie 48% 16% 85% 55% 53% 43%
S. Bartlett 30 48 5 29 26 34
Undec 16 25 8 12 15 17

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Dubie 44% 14% 83% 48% 48% 40%
M. Dunne 36 57 6 35 33 39
Undec 20 29 11 17 19 21

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
D. Markowitz 43% 63% 10% 45% 40% 46%
B. Dubie 41 12 82 43 45 37
Undec 16 25 8 12 15 17

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Dubie 43% 14% 83% 46% 47% 39%
D. Racine 38 59 7 37 34 42
Undec 19 27 10 17 19 19

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Dubie 45% 15% 84% 49% 49% 41%
P. Shumlin 35 55 6 34 32 38
Undec 20 30 10 17 19 21

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Dubie 44% 12% 85% 48% 48% 40%
S. Bartlett 26 48 4 19 19 33
A. Pollina 13 20 5 12 17 19
Undec 17 20 6 21 16 18

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Dubie 38% 8% 84% 38% 43% 33%
M. Dunne 31 54 5 26 26 36
A. Pollina 12 18 5 11 16 8
Undec 19 20 6 25 15 23

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Dubie 37% 8% 81% 37% 39% 35%
D. Markowitz 35 55 7 33 31 39
A. Pollina 11 12 6 14 15 7
Undec 17 25 6 16 15 19

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Dubie 38% 9% 82% 38% 41% 35%
D. Racine 32 54 6 27 28 36
A. Pollina 12 18 5 11 16 8
Undec 18 19 7 24 15 21

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
B. Dubie 39% 9% 83% 40% 43% 35%
P. Shumlin 31 54 5 26 27 35
A. Pollina 12 18 5 11 16 8
Undec 18 19 7 23 14 22

Fav/Unfav
D. Markowitz  48%/28%
B. Dubie 46 /33
D. Racine 38 /30
A. Pollina 38 /31
M. Dunne 34 /19
P. Shumlin 33 /21
S. Bartlett 26 /11

Senate 2010

Indiana
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/16-17; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/18). Tested: Ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R), ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R), state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R), Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-08) and Rep. Baron Hill (D-09).

General Election Matchups
D. Coats       46%            D. Coats       48%
B. Ellsworth 32 B. Hill 32
Other 7 Other 6
Undec 15 Undec 14

J. Hostettler 46% J. Hostettler 49%
B. Ellsworth 27 B. Hill 31
Other 7 Other 5
Undec 19 Undec 15

M. Stutzman 40% M. Stutzman 41%
B. Ellsworth 30 B. Hill 33
Other 9 Other 7
Undec 21 Undec 19

Fav/Unfav
-              Now     1/24
D. Coats 54%/27% n/a
J. Hostettler 48 /22 44%/27%
B. Hill 39 /35 n/a
M. Stutzman 35 /25 31 /26
B. Ellsworth 35 /29 n/a


Kentucky
A Garin-Hart-Yang (D) poll; conducted 2/2-4 for '04 nominee/LG Dan Mongiardo (D); surveyed 655 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 3.8% (release, 2/17). Tested: Mongiardo, AG Jack Conway, author/ex-Border Patrol agent Darlene Fitzgerald Price and cattle farmer/ex-Louisville NAACP pres. Maurice Sweeney.

Primary Election Matchup
D. Mongiardo         43%
J. Conway 25
D. Fitzgerald Price 2
M. Sweeney 1
Undec 29

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Governor 2010

Nevada
A Grove Insight (D) poll; conducted 1/31 for the NV State Educ. Assn; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/16). Tested: Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), ex-U.S. District Judge/ex-NV AG/ex-NV Gaming Commis. chair Brian Sandoval (R) and Clark Co. Commis. Rory Reid (D).

General Election Matchups

R. Reid 49%
J. Gibbons 33
Undec 19
B. Sandoval 44%
R. Reid 35
Undec 21

Gibbons As Gov.
Excellent/good   20%
Only fair/poor 75

Fav/Unfav
B. Sandoval  30%/11%
R. Reid 29 /31
J. Gibbons 25 /54

Oregon
A Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Assoc. (D) poll; conducted 2/4-9 for ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D); surveyed 554 Dem primary LVs; margin of error +/- 4.2% (release, 2/16). Tested: Kitzhaber, '02 SEN nominee/ex-Sec/State Bill Bradbury (D) and Soloflex founder Jerry Wilson (D).

Primary Election Matchup
J. Kitzhaber  55%
B. Bradbury 21
J. Wilson 2
Undec 22

Fav/Unfav
J. Kitzhaber  69%/16%
B. Bradbury 54 /13

Senate 2010

Illinois
A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) poll; conducted 2/9-14 for Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D); surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 11/2). Tested: Giannoulias and Rep. Mark Kirk (R-10).
-               Now 10/28 8/2
A. Giannoulias 49% 46% 45%
M. Kirk 45 43 40

Nevada
A Grove Insight (D) poll; conducted 1/31 for the NV State Educ. Assn; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/16).

Reid As Sen.
Excellent/good 34%
Only fair/poor 63

North Carolina
A Public Policy Polling (IVR) (D) poll; conducted 2/12-15; surveyed 788 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 2/17). Party ID Breakdown: 44%D, 38%R, 18%I. Tested: Sen. Richard Burr (R), atty/Iraq vet/ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), atty/Obama fundraiser Ken Lewis (D) and '02 candidate/Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D).

General Election Matchups
-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/18 12/13 11/11 10/4
R. Burr 44% 17% 80% 38% 51% 38% 45% 45% 44% 46%
C. Cunningham 32 56 6 26 30 33 36 36 31 27
Undec 24 27 14 36 19 28 19 20 25 27

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/18 12/13 11/11 10/4
R. Burr 44% 16% 80% 37% 51% 37% 46% 43% 45% 44%
K. Lewis 31 57 5 24 29 34 34 37 32 30
Undec 25 27 16 40 20 30 20 21 23 26

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/18 12/13 11/11 10/4
R. Burr 43% 16% 79% 38% 51% 36% 44% 42% 45% 44%
E. Marshall 33 60 6 25 31 36 37 37 34 32
Undec 23 24 16 37 18 28 18 21 21 24

-              All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/18 12/13 11/11 10/4
R. Burr 42% 15% 79% 35% 50% 35% 45% 42% 44% 45%
Generic Dem 35 63 5 26 33 37 36 41 40 34
Undec 23 22 16 39 17 28 20 17 16 22

Burr As Sen.

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/18 12/13 11/11 10/4
Approve 35% 16% 57% 35% 39% 31% 36% 35% 40% 36%
Disapprove 35 50 17 35 37 33 33 37 31 35

Fav/Unfav
-              All     Dem     GOP     Ind     1/18
E. Marshall 19%/10% 28%/ 8% 10%/13% 13%/10% 19%/12%
K. Lewis 7 /10 7 /10 4 /11 10 / 8 7 /10
C. Cunningham 6 / 9 8 / 9 3 / 9 7 / 7 6 / 8

Oregon
A Rasmussen Reports (IVR) poll; conducted 2/16; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/17). Tested: Sen. Ron Wyden (D) and Lewis & Clark law prof. Jim Huffman (R).

General Election Matchup
R. Wyden    49%
J. Huffman 35
Other 7
Undec 9

Fav/Unfav
R. Wyden    55%/36%
J. Huffman 33 /24
 
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